Forecast against actual
Track where demand lands relative to what was planned, by customer, product family and period.
Demand intelligence / Concept under discovery
Demand and Forecast Intelligence
Compare forecast demand with the orders that actually arrive, and show where the difference is about to cost capacity or stock.
The problem
Objective: Protect the plan from the forecast.
Material is bought and capacity is reserved against a forecast. When the orders arrive in a different shape, the business carries the difference as excess stock, as shortages, or as a schedule that has to be rebuilt.
Forecast accuracy is usually measured as a percentage in a review meeting rather than as a consequence in next month's plan.
What it does
Four things it has to get right.
Consequence, not accuracy
Express the gap in the terms that matter, stock that will not move and capacity that was held for nothing.
Early divergence
Flag a customer or family drifting from pattern while there is still time to change purchasing and planning.
Better assumptions
Give planning observed demand behaviour to plan against rather than a figure agreed last quarter.
Operational signals
What it reads.
Read-only, from the systems you already run. Nothing is replaced and nothing is written back without an approval.
- Forecast by period and family
- Incoming order pattern
- Stock bought against forecast
- Capacity reserved against forecast
Family B running 30 per cent under forecast
Material purchased against the original plan
Capacity reserved in weeks 14 to 16
Re-plan and purchasing hold proposed
An illustration of the kind of chain the system is designed to surface, not output from a live customer system.
The decision
Who acts on it.
Planning, commercial and supply chain
Decide what to re-plan, what purchasing to slow down, and which customer conversations would improve the signal.
Illustrative scenario
One family is running 30 per cent under forecast two months in. See the stock and capacity committed against it before the third month is bought.
Connected solutions
It does not work alone.
The same operational context powers every solution, so a signal picked up here shows its consequences everywhere else.
Is this the one costing you most?
We start with one measurable operational problem, your existing systems and a decision owner who can act. Tell us where it hurts and we will scope it honestly.